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The Greens have a serious shot of winning here.
It’s the other half of the Greens heartland in inner-Melbourne (the other half being Wills) but demographically it’s less favourable than Wills because Northcote and Thornbury aren’t as strong as Brunswick or Coburg on the other side of the creek. There’s less of a Muslim population in the north which contains Bundoora, Preston and Reservoir versus Wills that has Pascoe Vale, Fawkner, Oak Park, and Ged Kearney is from the left faction and is pro-Palestine unlike Peter Khalil from the right and a pro-American hawk of sorts (who would probably be better for Macnamara than the left wing Wills).
I think Labor can hold on but could see a further swing to the Greens if the Liberal (who are deplored here) vote keeps decreasing.
Also should mention Sam Ratnam is a competitive candidate with a high profile and suitable for the electorate. Cooper on the other hand has a relatively unknown Tara Burnett who is not as high profile as the previous candidate Celeste Liddle (who happens to be her partner) who helped the Greens swing back into competition after Kearney swooped the anti-Greens wave and boosted her margin to about 14%.
So I’d say Cooper is Labor hold, but Wills is a marginal Greens gain.
@Tommo9 I agree, unfortunately the Greens will pick up Wills. But Labor will still hold onto Cooper and Macnamara.
Yeah Cooper is only 4.1% Muslim and Bell Street is less of a divide. Ged Kearney is a popular MP and is the right fit for the seat. The Greens will need Liberal preferences to win this which is buckleys chance. Replacing David Feeney with Ged Kearney was Shorten’s greatest gift to the Labor party although too much focus on this seat led to Labor moving too far to the left in 2018 Batman by-election which hurt them in the coal seats. However, when they have good MPs like Ged Kearney/Plibasek they can hold on.
Labor hold with little swing against it.
I rate both Macnamara and Wills as tossups. Cooper is safe for labor until Kearney retires.
There seems to be sn assumption that the Greens will keep gradually increasing their vote in areas like this and eventually take it. I think the Greens vote has peaked, there will be little to no swing and could even be a swing to Labor. Labor won a majority at the Darebin council elections and the Greens did poorly